Vol. 4: Promotion Transaction Trend Starting to Stabilize

As we head into the fourth week of COVID-19 severely impacting our industry, we have seen that over the past 7-10 days total promotion-related traffic per store has levelled out across both online and offline order modes. This is consistent with trends in total restaurant transactions and should allow for more certainty in forecasting and planning going forward.

That said, promotional behavior by daypart, and weekday vs. weekend, have demonstrated continued variability – see chart below. Yesterday’s (Tuesday) promotion redemptions and related $ spend was as high, or higher, than the previous two Tuesdays, thus showing the #TheGreatAmericanTakeout is likely to continue in some form.

Finally, we are seeing strong average check performance – across both takeout and delivery – from brands that have made a family meal offer their primary message.

Consider the following enhancements to your short-term promotional plans:

  1. Take time to evaluate your brand’s marketing and promotion performance since your volatility has slowed. Build a weekly communications plan that is informed by those results – we anticipate recent behavior to continue on a similar trend. On Friday, we will provide an example for those brands seeking general planning assistance.
  2. Among email membership, the share of redemptions between Returning Redeemers and First-Time Redeemers is also becoming more consistent. 79% of redemptions are coming from Returning Redeemers, up from 69% in February. Establish the cadence and depth of discount for each group as part of your weekly planning.
  3. Start planning now for next Tuesday’s takeout event by brainstorming unique offers or incentives that can be promoted in the days prior – a strong, unique plan will break through to consumers and deliver higher share-of-wallet on this high volume weekday.